Yemen's Saleh likely out of power this year - report

The report cautioned: "Saleh leaving power early does not result in a functional Yemeni state that can reassert control over the country in the short term."

Source: Reuters, 01/06/2011
By Jon Herskovitz

DUBAI-President Ali Abdullah Saleh is unlikely to stay in power through 2011 but violence in Yemen will increase while he clings on, a report said on Wednesday.

Global powers have been pressing Saleh to sign a Gulf-mediated deal to step down and stem spreading chaos in civil-war-threatened Yemen, a haven for al Qaeda militants and neighbour to the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia.

"Saleh is unlikely to survive 2011 as president of Yemen; however the likelihood of a managed transition is decreasing, and an attempt to forcibly oust Saleh from power is becoming more likely," the Eurasia Group said in a report.

This week, there have been three main flashpoints in the country -- fighting in the capital, government troops gunning down protesters in Taiz in the south and a battle with al Qaeda and Islamic militants in the coastal city of Zinjibar.

The political risk think-tank said the most likely outcome for the crisis is for Saleh leaving power through a political deal he brokers from a position of weakness, or being ousted by force by breakaway military groups and tribal leaders.

The report cautioned: "Saleh leaving power early does not result in a functional Yemeni state that can reassert control over the country in the short term."

Saleh, a wily politician who has ruled the impoverished country for nearly 33 years, has faced months of street protests calling for his ouster while his forces have battled powerful tribal groups who have aligned themselves with the protesters.

GULF NEIGHBOURS EXASPERATED

Members of his military and government started to abandon him in March after his troops killed dozens of protesters.
The breakaway military groups have called on others in the army to join them in opposition to the government but have not engaged in any major fighting with forces loyal to Saleh.

Saleh has also exasperated his rich Gulf Arab neighbours by three times agreeing to step down, only to pull out of a power transition plan at the last minute.

Analysts are worried that the instability in Yemen could embolden the al Qaeda wing in the country, which has targeted the United States and Saudi Arabia.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called for a cease-fire between Saleh's forces and a powerful tribal group, after street fighting between the two last week killed at least 115 people.


"The Secretary-General is gravely concerned about the reports of excessive use of force by Yemeni security forces against unarmed demonstrators in Taiz and the escalating fighting in Sana and other cities leaving scores of civilians dead, wounded and displaced," he said in a statement