By Nasser Arrabyee, 17/04/2012
An all-out civil war is still possible in Yemen despite the new elected President.
The only thing that prevented the war so far was a Saudi-sponsored deal supported by the US that led to a peaceful transition of power (Any war in Yemen now will be in the advantage of Al Qaeda, this will certainly affect the Saudi Arabia and US).
The deal, GCC Initiative, formed a unity government with the former President Ali Abduallah Saleh's party having 50 per cent of the ministers of this government.
The deal gave Saleh and senior members of his regime immunity from any future prosecution, and even more Saleh was allowed to continue practice politics as the head of his party which turned to opposition now.
The war might erupt any time if the new elected President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi failed to implement the deal which is supposed to govern everything until February 2014 when a free and fair presidential elections are supposed to be held.
If Saleh's party, the General People's Congress, is marginalized in any way, this would mean the failure that would lead for sure to the civil war. At least half of the 24 million population support Saleh's party which has the overwhelming majority in Parliament and 17 ministers of the 34-member cabinet. The new elected President Hadi is still the secretary general of this semi-secular party.
The former President Saleh warned of any failure in implementation of the GCC deal or any marginalization of his party. " If the GCC Initiative is not implemented as agreed, then no one would surrender himself to death," Saleh told thousands of young people from his party who marched to his house on Monday April 17,2012. Saleh was clearly referring to himself and his party and supporters who will not keep silent if marginalized. Saleh's son and nephews are still the top leaders of the majority of army and security.
The failure may happen from two things: either by marginalizing Saleh's party by firing its members from the important positions of the State one by one,or by amending the GCC deal in a way that would not give Saleh's party 50 per cent in every thing and that would not give immunity to the Saleh and his aides.
For instance,Naji Al Zaydi, governor of Mareb, was sacked by the new President Hadi, earlier this month, but he is still holding his position under the protection of his tribesmen. Al Zaydi is saying he is now preventing a possible war between his tribesmen and the tribesmen loyal to the newly appointed governor Sultan Al Eradah.
" I am not refusing the presidential decree and I am not sticking to the power,but I am sure this decree will not work , and I told the new governor who is my friend and the President himself," Al Zaydi told the weekly.
The new governor Sultan Al Eradah is from Mareb also and his supporters are from the Islamist party, Islah. Al Zaydi whose supporters are from Saleh's party, survived many assassination attempts this year and last year and he accused the Islamist party of having planned and implemented those attempts.
" Even if I accepted the decree, my tribesmen would not accept and would do the same things that were done to us at least, against those who were behind assaults against us," Al Zaydi said as he points to tens of gunmen sitting in his big room in his luxurious house in the capital Sanaa on Monday, April 16,2012.
Saleh's party wants the new elected President to fire the defected General Ali Muhsen, after he sacked many military officials loyal to Saleh including two relatives, to keep the balance between the conflicting parties. The general Muhsen supported the Islamist party Islah which was mainly behind the last year's protests which led to elections of the new President Hadi.
Al Qaeda is always the biggest beneficiary from any chaos in Yemen. It's recruiting and and expanding to control Yemen and turn it into " Islamic State" and use it as a launch pad to strike Saudi Arabia and US.
Four soldiers were killed and 10 others injured south of the country in a suicide attacker from Al Qaeda that threatened Monday to implement 10 suicide bombings, said local sources late Tuesday.
The suicide bomber, who was killed in the operation, was driving his car bomb in the area of Tharah north of Lawdar, before he exploded himself and his car in the military check point of the 26 brigade in the district of Mukairas, at the border of Abyan with Al Baidha province, killing four soldiers and injuring 10 others including four passersby.
Earlier on Monday, Al Qaeda vowed to implement 10 suicide bombings over the few coming days in the southern province of Abyan, where fierce battles have been going on two weeks now between Al Qaeda and local tribesmen supportedvby the government troops.
In the area of Al Ain, close to Lawdar, in Abyan province, Al Qaeda performed the prayer of dead for 10 live young people, in a clear message that these 10 people have decided to kill themselves in suicide operations " Marytrdom" operations against the troops and tribesmen of the so-called anti-Al Qaeda popular committees, said the sources who saw the sermons of the prayer.
The dead prayer usually takes place when someone is dead, but today it took place while the 10 young people are still alive but Al Qaeda claimed they had decided to be "Martyrs", and they asked for this prayer because their bodies are likely not to be found for prayers and burials.
Meanwhile, and in a signal of defiance, the anti-Al Qaeda popular committees have started to distribute shrouds to their fighters , in a signal that they are ready to die for their villages and lands and they will never ever let the terrorists to occupy their villages.
" If Al Qaeda has 10 suicide bombers, for us, all our fighters are ready now to die for the sake of our properties and honors, and this is why everybody of us now has his own shroud as a part of the war stuff," said Hussein, O, a leader of the anti-Al Qaeda popular committees.
Al Qaeda has been holding two hostages in the southern province of Shabwah, which is neighboring to Abyan. The first hostage is Swiss woman who was kidnapped from the Western province of Hodeidah last month, and the second hostage is Saudi diplomat kidnapped from the southern city of Aden early late last month. Al Qaeda is demanding release of prisoners from Saudi and Yemeni prisons.